Sunday, July 5, 2026

Der Mechanische Türke macht einen Zeitsprung (German)

Anfang des 19. Jahrhunderts gab es in Paris und anderen europäischen Hauptstädten eine berühmte Bühnenvorführung: den Mechanischen Türken. Zur großen Überraschung des Publikums spielte diese große Holzkiste meisterhaft Schach.  Erst viele Jahre später kam die Wahrheit ans Licht: In der Kiste waren keine Zahnräder und Hebel verborgen, sondern ein kluger Zwerg.


In dieser „erfundenen Geschichte" kommt der Mechanische Türke nach einer langen Reparatur zurück – und besitzt plötzlich eine ganz neue Sammlung erstaunlicher Fähigkeiten.

Der erstaunliche Mechanische Türke demonstriert seine neue allgemeine Intelligenz

Aus dem Bericht unseres Korrespondenten in Wien, 1811

Am vergangenen Dienstagabend besuchte ich wieder eine Vorführung des berühmten Mechanischen Türken von Herrn von Kempelen. Ich erwartete nur eine weitere Schachpartie. Stattdessen schien die Maschine eine erstaunliche Verbesserung erhalten zu haben.

Dem Publikum wurde erklärt, dass sich der Türke nicht länger auf Schach beschränken werde. Er könne jetzt allgemeine Fragen zu jedem Thema beantworten, Bücher zusammenfassen, die er nie gelesen habe, Gedichte auf Wunsch schreiben, juristische Gutachten entwerfen und sogar die lateinischen Aufsätze der Schuljungen schreiben.

Sein Besitzer versicherte uns, diese Verbesserungen würden „die Wissenswirtschaft verändern“.

Niemand wusste, was dieser Ausdruck bedeutete, aber niemand stellte eine Frage. 
- - - - - - -

Die Vorführung begann.

Ein Herr fragte:

„Wer war der größte römische Kaiser?“

Der Türke dachte kaum zwei Sekunden nach und antwortete:

„Das hängt von Ihren Bewertungskriterien ab. Wenn militärische Eroberungen am wichtigsten sind: Trajan. Wenn Verwaltungsreformen zählen: Augustus. Wenn philosophischer Einfluss entscheidet: Mark Aurel. Wenn gutes Marketing wichtig ist: Julius Caesar.“

Mehrere Professoren klatschten.

Einer flüsterte:

„Er spricht mit außerordentlichem Selbstvertrauen.“
- - - - - - - -

Ein Pfarrer fragte:

„Wie viele Einwohner hat Konstantinopel?“

Der Türke antwortete:

„Ungefähr 6,3 Millionen.“

Das Publikum sah verwundert aus.  Was denn?

Der Besitzer hustete kurz.

„Die Maschine halluziniert gelegentlich.“

Das Publikum akzeptierte diese Erklärung sofort und verhielt sich, als wäre nichts Besonderes geschehen.
- - - - - - -

Eine Dame bat die Maschine:

„Schreiben Sie bitte ein Sonett im Stil Shakespeares über meinen Chihuahua.“

Der Türke erledigte dies sofort.

Obwohl niemand glaubte, dass Shakespeare jemals einen solchen Hund gesehen hatte, waren sich alle einig, dass das Gedicht wirklich nach Shakespeare klang.
- - - - - - -

Der Herausgeber einer Zeitung zeigte sich besorgt.

„Wenn diese Maschine Parlamentsdebatten in wenigen Sekunden zusammenfassen kann – was wird dann aus den Journalisten?“

Der Besitzer antwortete fröhlich:

„Sie werden mehr Zeit für wichtigere Aufgaben haben.

Die Journalisten wirkten nicht überzeugt.
- - - - - - -

Ein Rechtsanwalt fragte, ob der Türke auch Verträge schreiben könne.

„Das kann er ausgezeichnet“, antwortete der Besitzer.

Mehrere Anwälte wurden sichtlich nervös.

„Und stellt er jede Stunde in Rechnung?“ fragte einer.

„Noch nicht“, sagte der Besitzer.

Die Anwälte entspannten sich wieder.
- - - - - -

Als Nächstes zeigte der Besitzer etwas, das er iteratives Prompting nannte.

Statt einfach zu fragen:

„Beschreiben Sie Pferde“,

sollte man lieber sagen:

„Übernehmen Sie die Rolle eines erfahrenen Kavallerieoffiziers. Schreiben Sie für junge Stallmeister. Verwenden Sie eine klare Sprache. Geben Sie fünf praktische Beispiele.“

Alle waren sich einig, dass die zweite Antwort deutlich besser war.
- - - - - - -

Als ich die Vorführung verließ, hörte ich zwei Väter über die Zukunft sprechen.

„Mein Sohn lernt Buchhaltung.“

     „Ein schwerer Fehler.“

„Und Ihrer?“

     „Er lernt, dem Türken bessere Fragen zu stellen.“

„Eine kluge Investition.“

Dann: „Aber ich würde dem K.I. keine wirklich wichtigen Entscheidungen anvertrauen.“

Der andere schwieg einen Moment.

     „Trotzdem“, sagte er, „schreibt er einen ziemlich guten ersten Entwurf.“


Saturday, July 4, 2026

The Mechanical Turk Does the Time-Warp

 In the early 1800s in Paris and other capitals, there was a stage and parlor act called The Mechanical Turk.  To the astonishment of audiences, this large wooden box played a masterful game of chess.   Long after, it was revealed the box contained not wires and levers, but a skillful dwarf.


In this counter-factual, the Mechanical Turk comes back from extensive repairs to display...quite a new reperatory of skills.


 


The Astonishing Mechanical Turk Demonstrates Its New General Intelligence

From Our Correspondent in Vienna, 1811

Last Tuesday evening I attended another exhibition of Herr von Kempelen's celebrated Mechanical Turk. I had expected merely another exhibition of chess, but I found instead that the machine has apparently undergone a considerable software update.

The audience was informed that the Turk would no longer be confined to chess.  It would now answer general questions on any subject, summarize books it had not read, compose poetry upon request, prepare legal memoranda, and assist schoolboys with Latin compositions.

Its proprietor assured us that these improvements would "transform the knowledge economy."

This expression was entirely unfamiliar, but no one asked.


The demonstration commenced.

A gentleman inquired:

"Who was the greatest Roman emperor?"

The Turk considered for scarcely two seconds before replying,

"It depends upon your evaluation criteria. If military expansion is emphasized, Trajan. If administrative reform, Augustus. If philosophical influence, Marcus Aurelius. If one values effective branding, Julius Caesar."

Several professors applauded.

One whispered,

"It speaks with extraordinary confidence."


A clergyman asked,

"What is the population of Constantinople?"

The Turk replied,

"Approximately 6.3 million."

The audience looked puzzled.

The proprietor coughed politely.

"The machine occasionally hallucinates."

The audience accepted this explanation immediately and proceeded as though nothing unusual had occurred.


A lady requested,

"Write a sonnet in the style of Shakespeare concerning my Pomeranian."

The Turk complied instantly.

Although none present believed Shakespeare had ever seen such a dog, everyone agreed the stanza was indeed Shakespearean.


The editor of a local newspaper expressed concern.

"If this machine can well summarize parliamentary debates in seconds, what becomes of journalists?"

The proprietor answered cheerfully,

"You shall be freed to pursue higher-value activities."

The journalists looked unconvinced.


A barrister asked whether the Turk could draft contracts.

"It drafts them admirably," said the proprietor.

Several attorneys became visibly uncomfortable.

"Does it charge by the hour?' one asked.

"Not yet," said the proprietor.

The attorneys relaxed.


The proprietor next demonstrated what he called iterative prompting.

Instead of asking,

"Describe horses,"

he instructed the audience to request,

"Assume the role of an experienced cavalry officer writing for novice stablemasters. Use clear language. Include five practical examples."

The second answer was universally judged superior.


As I departed, I overheard two fathers discussing the future.

"My son is studying bookkeeping."

"A grave mistake."

"And yours?"

"He is learning how to ask the Turk better questions."

"A wise investment."

"But I would not trust it with matters of great consequence."

The other paused.  

"Still," he said, "It writes a good first draft."

With the coming move to digital pathology, are industry dynamics pulled out from under us?

 

Digital Pathology and the Future Structure of the Pathology Industry

Overview

Digital pathology is often discussed as a technical upgrade: glass slides are scanned, images are viewed on monitors, and pathologists gain tools for remote review, collaboration, and artificial intelligence. 

But the larger question is industrial. Once anatomic pathology becomes digital-first, who reads the cases, where are they read, and how does the profession reorganize itself? Radiology offers a useful comparison, but not a perfect one. Digital radiology enabled teleradiology, subspecialty networks, and some large-scale consolidation of radiologists -  yet it did not eliminate local radiology. Pathology is likely to follow a similar but distinct path: more networked, more subspecialized, and more consolidated, but still anchored in local specimen workflows.

The Glass-Slide Cliff

Among the major diagnostic fields, radiology and clinical laboratory medicine crossed the digital bridge earlier. Advanced imaging converts the physical patient into pixels through CT, MRI, PET, ultrasound, and related modalities. Clinical laboratory medicine converts blood, tissue, and other specimens into structured digital results: sodium 140, hemoglobin 13.5, EGFR positive, tumor mutational burden 12.

Anatomic pathology has remained different. Its central diagnostic object is still the physical glass slide. In many institutions, the pathology workflow effectively stops at that slide as if at a cliff. The case can be reviewed locally, mailed for consultation, or carried to a tumor board, but the diagnostic object itself remains physical and location-bound.

Whole-slide imaging changes that. Once slides are digitized, anatomic pathology can enter the same networked diagnostic environment that radiology and laboratory medicine already occupy. Slides can be routed, shared, archived, compared, reviewed at tumor boards, paired with radiology and molecular data, and analyzed by AI-enabled tools. The practical effect is not just modernization. It changes the geography and economics of pathology.

The Consolidation Question

The most obvious forecast is consolidation. If a slide can be scanned in one hospital and read anywhere, why must interpretation remain local? Routine cases could be routed to regional hubs. Complex cases could go to subspecialty experts. Overflow work could be assigned to national reading networks. In principle, large pathology groups could employ hundreds or thousands of pathologists, many working remotely from home workstations.

The analogy to radiology is unavoidable. Digital radiology enabled teleradiology, after-hours coverage, subspecialty routing, national groups, and large corporate networks. But radiology did not collapse into one national reading room. Hospital-based groups, academic departments, regional networks, outpatient imaging groups, and national teleradiology companies all coexist.

Pathology is likely to follow the same broad pattern: hybrid consolidation, not total centralization.

Why Pathology Is Not Just Radiology With Slides

Radiology is often born digital. The CT or MRI scanner converts the patient directly into a digital imaging study. Pathology is different. The digital image is downstream of a complex physical production process.

Tissue must be collected, accessioned, grossed, fixed, embedded, cut, stained, quality-checked, and sometimes recut or reflexed to special stains, immunohistochemistry, cytogenetics, flow cytometry, or molecular testing. A whole-slide image is therefore not the whole diagnostic enterprise. It is one layer built on top of a specimen workflow.

That difference matters. A remote pathologist can read an image, but pathology also includes specimen stewardship, laboratory quality, intraoperative consultation, clinical communication, tumor board participation, and institutional accountability. These functions are harder to detach from the local hospital or regional health system.

What Will Centralize First

Not all pathology work is equally centralizable. Some areas are especially suited to digital routing.

Subspecialty review. Dermatopathology, gastrointestinal pathology, genitourinary pathology, breast pathology, hematopathology, renal pathology, neuropathology, and complex oncology cases can all benefit from digital access to expert readers.

Second opinions and consultations. Digital pathology can reduce the delay and friction of mailing glass slides, especially for rare tumors, difficult borderline cases, or treatment-defining diagnoses.

Overflow and load balancing. Multi-hospital systems may shift work across their network, smoothing daily volume spikes and making better use of subspecialists.

Quality review and benchmarking. Digital archives make it easier to compare interpretations, audit concordance, monitor turnaround time, and support peer review.

AI-enabled triage. Algorithms may help identify suspicious regions, prioritize urgent cases, standardize quantification, or flag possible discrepancies.

These uses do not require pathology to become fully centralized. They require pathology to become digitally routable.

What Will Stay Local or Regional

Other parts of pathology will remain more locally anchored.

Specimen handling. Tissue still must be processed physically. Fixation, grossing, embedding, sectioning, staining, scanning, and quality control are operationally local or regional.

Frozen sections and urgent intraoperative work. These require tight coordination with operating rooms and clinical teams.

Clinical relationships. Pathologists work with surgeons, oncologists, gastroenterologists, pulmonologists, dermatologists, and tumor boards. Local knowledge still matters.

Laboratory medical direction. Accreditation, quality systems, preanalytic variables, technical problems, and staff supervision require accountable medical leadership.

Multidisciplinary care. In cancer care especially, the pathologist is not merely a remote reader. The pathologist helps connect morphology, immunohistochemistry, molecular results, radiology, staging, and treatment planning.

This is the stabilizing force that makes total centralization unlikely.

The Emerging Market Architecture

Digital pathology may separate the industry into two related but distinct layers.

The slide factory. This includes accessioning, grossing, tissue processing, staining, scanning, image quality control, chain of custody, and LIS/image-system integration.

The interpretation network. This includes primary diagnosis, subspecialty sign-out, second opinions, AI triage, tumor-board support, quality analytics, and diagnostic benchmarking.

These layers can be integrated within one health system, split between local labs and regional hubs, or connected through national specialty networks. The key point is that digital pathology makes the division possible. The slide no longer has to travel physically for the case to travel diagnostically.

The Role of AI and Scale

Artificial intelligence may accelerate consolidation because scale creates data advantages. Large digital archives can support algorithm development, validation, quality review, productivity analytics, and disease-specific workflows. Organizations with large case volumes may gain capabilities that small practices cannot easily reproduce.

But AI could also support decentralization. A community hospital with digital pathology could gain access to triage tools, quantification tools, subspecialty backup, and remote consultation that previously required a major academic center. In that model, digital pathology strengthens local care rather than replacing it.

The strategic question is therefore not whether digital pathology centralizes or decentralizes pathology. It will do both. It will centralize some expertise, standardize some workflows, and distribute some capabilities more widely.

Lessons From Radiology

Radiology offers both a model and a warning. Digital radiology improved access, speed, after-hours coverage, subspecialty consultation, and image availability. It also produced consolidation, productivity pressure, commoditized reads, and tension between remote interpretation and local clinical integration.

Pathology may experience similar pressures, but with a different equilibrium. Radiology images are produced directly by scanners. Pathology images are produced by laboratories. That physical-laboratory foundation gives pathology a stronger local anchor.

The likely future is therefore not a single national pathology factory. It is a layered system: local laboratories, regional hubs, academic and subspecialty networks, national platforms, and AI-enabled quality systems.

Forecast: Hybrid Consolidation, Not Total Centralization

The pathology market is likely to become more digital, more networked, more subspecialized, and more consolidated in selected areas. Some small groups may be squeezed, especially if they lack digital infrastructure, subspecialty depth, or health-system scale. Larger organizations may gain advantages in recruiting, coverage, data, AI, quality systems, and workflow management.

But local pathology will not disappear. Hospitals and health systems will still need pathology leadership tied to specimen quality, lab operations, clinical relationships, tumor boards, frozen sections, and medical staff accountability.

The winners will likely be organizations that combine three capabilities: excellent physical specimen operations, strong digital infrastructure, and flexible interpretation networks. The losers may be organizations that treat digital pathology as simply a scanner purchase rather than a redesign of diagnostic workflow.

Bottom Line

Digital pathology is not merely a new way to look at slides. It is a new market architecture for anatomic pathology. It allows the diagnostic case to move even when the physical tissue remains local.

The profession’s central challenge will be to capture the benefits of digital scale without losing the clinical accountability that has historically defined pathology’s role in patient care. The glass slide will remain important, but it will no longer define the boundaries of the field.
 

Chat GPT Discusses 5 Academic Papers in Context of our "Payor Friction" White Paper

This link comes from Sidebar 3 of our white paper on payors & friction.  Prior to this Sidebar 3, the discussion built on a CAP white paper and an AMA white paper.

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Below is a paper-by-paper summary, with emphasis on what each one contributes to our “payer friction as transaction cost” project.

1. Williamson 1971 — The Vertical Integration of Production: Market Failure Considerations

Williamson’s 1971 paper is an early, compact statement of the transaction-cost view of vertical integration. His starting point is the classic puzzle: if competitive markets operate at zero cost, vertical integration should be unnecessary. The reason firms integrate, he argues, is not only technological complementarity, but “transactional failures” in markets for intermediate goods. In other words, firms may internalize transactions because the market interface itself becomes too costly, unreliable, or hard to adapt.

The most useful point for our purposes is Williamson’s emphasis on adaptation under non-stationary conditions. He says transaction-cost analysis is relatively uninteresting under fully stationary conditions; the problem becomes engaging when parties must make “unprogrammed adaptations.” That is exactly the world of health care claims, prior authorization, medical necessity, new technologies, coding changes, and exception cases. The payer-provider relationship is not a simple purchase order. It is a continuing adaptive relationship under uncertainty.

Williamson also gives the firm three advantages over arm’s-length market exchange: better incentives, better controls, and structural advantages. Internal organization can reduce the aggressive advocacy of arm’s-length bargaining and can use more sensitive control instruments than market exchange. But he is careful that internal organization also has administrative frictions; the question is comparative, not romantic.

Use for Sidebar Three: Williamson supplies the core argument that health care friction is not just “waste.” It is the cost of governing complex transactions where contracts are incomplete and adaptation is continuous. Prior authorization and denials are payer-side tools for governing the gray zone.

2. Alchian and Demsetz 1972 — Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization

Alchian and Demsetz approach the firm differently. They reject the idea that firms are mainly defined by superior “fiat” or command. The employer, they argue, does not possess magical authority different from ordinary contracting; the employer can essentially fire or sue, just as a buyer can stop buying from a grocer or sue for defective performance. What distinguishes the firm is not authority alone, but the team use of inputs and a centralized contractual position.

Their key concept is the metering problem. Economic organization must measure productivity and allocate rewards in relation to contribution. Markets often do this fairly well when output is separable: if a farmer produces 10% more wheat, receipts rise roughly 10%. But in team production, individual contributions cannot be cleanly separated from total output. Their simple example is two people jointly loading heavy cargo: total output is observable, but each person’s marginal contribution may not be.

This creates the classic problem of shirking and monitoring. If rewards are not tied to actual contribution, incentives weaken. The firm, in their model, exists partly because it can create a monitor, and that monitor has incentives to measure performance and allocate rewards. This is why the paper is so useful for health care: clinical care is team production par excellence. The diagnostic outcome is not produced by one billable unit; it is produced by pathologists, treating physicians, nurses, lab staff, imaging, hospital systems, and others.

Use for Sidebar Three: The payer is trying to “meter” clinical production from outside the clinical team, using claims, codes, documentation, prior authorization, and utilization patterns as proxies. That makes payer friction a crude form of external metering — sometimes justified, often distorted, and sometimes strategically burdensome.

3. Demsetz 1988 — The Theory of the Firm Revisited

Demsetz is the healthy skeptic in the packet. He agrees that Coase was seminal in asking why firms exist if markets are efficient, and he agrees that markets are not costless. But he argues that the theory of the firm remained incomplete because it gave too little weight to information cost, especially information used in production and management.

His first useful move is to attack the “perfect competition” model as really a model of “perfect decentralization.” It is elegant for studying the price system, but almost useless for studying firms as problem-solving institutions. In that model, production possibilities, prices, products, techniques, and markets are assumed to be known at zero cost, so management is emptied of real content.

His second major move is a critique of simple transaction-cost reasoning. He says the make-or-buy question is often framed too crudely as “market transaction cost versus internal management cost.” But both options contain both kinds of costs. In-house production still requires market purchases of inputs. Buying from another firm still buys that firm’s management services. The correct comparison is the sum of management and transaction costs under each arrangement.

[NewCo says management costs of making X are  high, so I'll purchase X from ABC.  But ABC will also have faced, and paid for, those high management costs of making X, so they will be part of NewCo's price paid for ABC when NewCo gets its invoice from X for ABC.]

His third move is especially important: firms differ in productive knowledge, commitments, personnel, methods, and firm-specific information. Transaction-cost theory can mistakenly assume that what one firm can produce, another can produce equally well, thereby neglecting differences in production capability.

Use for Sidebar Three: Demsetz disciplines the argument. We should not say “payer friction is bad because transaction costs are bad.” We should ask whether payer friction actually reduces total system cost, including the costs shifted to providers and patients. Demsetz also helps defend pathology against commoditization: not every lab or pathology service is interchangeable merely because the code descriptor looks similar.

4. Cuypers, Hennart, Silverman, and Ertug 2021 — Transaction Cost Theory: Past Progress, Current Challenges, and Suggestions for the Future

This is the broad modern review. It says transaction cost theory began with Coase and Williamson, especially the make-versus-buy and vertical integration questions, but has since expanded into strategy, international business, alliances, supply chains, public-private partnerships, platforms, AI, trust, behavioral economics, and nonpecuniary goals.

The authors restate Williamson’s basic framework: actors assign transactions to governance structures based on transaction attributes, especially asset specificity, uncertainty, and frequency. The classic governance alternatives are markets, hierarchies, and hybrids. Their figure on page 4 lays out the classic model: bounded rationality and opportunism shape the alignment between transaction characteristics and governance choice, which then affects performance.

The paper is especially useful because it shows how the field has moved beyond the old model. It notes that later work emphasized behavioral uncertainty, appropriability, knowledge leakage, hybrid governance, formal and informal contracts, trust, and credible commitments. It also notes that “frequency,” although part of the original Williamson triad, has been underdeveloped empirically and theoretically.

One particularly useful discussion concerns opportunism. The authors explain that Williamson’s view does not require believing everyone lies or cheats all the time. The problem is that some actors may behave opportunistically some of the time, and it is difficult to know in advance who will do so or when. That small probability can be enough to justify governance safeguards.

The paper’s most novel element for our purposes is its future-facing agenda. It calls for a more dynamic TCT, more integration with behavioral psychology, more attention to trust and formal-informal governance, and more work on platforms, AI, and two-sided markets. Its updated framework includes “bounded reliability,” market thickness, network effects, behavioral uncertainty, appropriability, output measurement costs, behavior measurement costs, and macro context such as polity and culture.

Use for Sidebar Three: This paper lets us modernize the payer-friction argument. Modern payers are not just insurers; they are platform-like governance entities, with claims systems, PBMs, analytics, provider assets, MA plans, network design, AI tools, and utilization-management vendors. It also helps us avoid saying “payers are opportunists.” The more nuanced point is that the system is built around low trust, behavioral uncertainty, and administrative safeguards that can themselves become burdensome or strategic.

5. Wiki Transaction Cost article — useful mainly as a map of definitions and extensions

The Wiki article is not the authority here, but it is a useful orientation map. The obvious part is the basic definition: transaction costs are costs incurred in making economic exchanges, alongside production costs. It summarizes Williamson’s determinants as frequency, specificity, uncertainty, limited rationality, and opportunistic behavior. It also gives Dahlman’s familiar triplet: search and information costs; bargaining and decision costs; and policing and enforcement costs.

The more useful material is the broader genealogy. The article notes John R. Commons’s institutional view: the basic unit of analysis is not merely commodities or individual behavior, but transactions governed by working rules of collective action. That helps with our payer argument because health care is not just “services exchanged for payment”; it is a system of rights, permissions, rules, documentation, obligations, and institutional control.

It also mentions Douglass North’s framing: transaction costs include measurement, enforcement, ideological attitudes/perceptions, and market size. This is more interesting than the generic definition. In health care terms, “measurement” maps to clinical necessity, coding, quality, and appropriateness; “enforcement” maps to audits, denials, recoupments, and appeals; “ideological attitudes” maps to payer-provider distrust and differing beliefs about overuse; and “market size” maps to whether transactions are impersonal, competitive, or dominated by a few large intermediaries.

The Wiki article also includes Steven Cheung’s broader definition: transaction costs are costs that would not exist in a Robinson Crusoe economy — essentially institutional costs. Many economists define the term more narrowly, but Cheung’s broad version is actually useful for health care because so many payer burdens are institutional artifacts rather than clinical production costs.

Finally, the more contemporary note is that Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, including distributed ledgers and blockchains, may reduce transaction costs compared with traditional contracting. That is only a brief Wiki-level point, but it opens an interesting health-care question: could automation, APIs, smart contracts, transparent medical policies, or real-time adjudication reduce payer friction — or would they merely automate the payer’s rule layer and make denials faster?

Cross-paper synthesis for our payer-friction project

The papers line up into a useful architecture:

Williamson gives us transactional failure and adaptation. Health care contracts cannot pre-specify every future clinical circumstance, so payers and providers fight over interpretation.

Alchian and Demsetz give us team production and metering. Health care output is produced by teams, but payers meter it externally through administrative proxies.

Demsetz gives us caution and completeness. The question is not whether payer friction creates costs, but whether it reduces total costs after counting provider burden, patient delay, and lost clinical productivity.

Cuypers et al. give us modernization. The theory now includes hybrids, platforms, trust, bounded reliability, AI, behavioral uncertainty, and formal-informal governance — all highly relevant to modern payers.

The Wiki article gives us taxonomy and vocabulary: search, bargaining, enforcement; measurement and enforcement; institutions; and the possible role of digital technologies.

The short version: these papers make our sidebar stronger because they show that payer friction is not merely annoyance, waste, or bad manners. It is a governance system for incomplete, uncertain, team-based, clinically complex transactions — and under payer concentration, the party designing the governance system can also shift much of its cost to others.


###

What did Coase do, since Williamson is credited decades later with many of the classic aspects of the field?

###

Yes. That is exactly right: Coase supplied the foundational question and the conceptual door; Williamson later built much of the machinery inside the room.

Coase’s 1937 paper, The Nature of the Firm, was Nobel-worthy because it changed the unit of analysis. Before Coase, economics had a powerful theory of prices and markets, but a weak theory of why firms exist at all. In the clean textbook model, if prices coordinate everything efficiently, why do we need firms, managers, employees, internal departments, and command structures? Demsetz later summarized this as Coase’s seminal contribution: he called attention to the missing theory of the firm and to the crucial fact that markets do not operate costlessly.

Coase’s core move was simple but radical:

Using the market is not free.

Finding suppliers, discovering prices, negotiating terms, writing contracts, enforcing agreements, and adapting to changes all require effort. Coase called these the “costs of using the price mechanism.” The later phrase “transaction costs” became the standard label, though the Wiki article notes that Coase did not coin that exact term in 1937.

That insight explains why firms exist. A firm arises when it is cheaper to coordinate some activities internally than to repeatedly bargain across markets. Instead of negotiating a new contract for every tiny task, the firm creates a continuing relationship in which some directions can be handled administratively. In effect, the firm substitutes internal coordination for a series of external market transactions.

But Coase also avoided a crude “firms are always better” view. His framework was comparative. Firms grow until the cost of organizing one more transaction internally equals the cost of carrying it out through the market. That is the essential make-or-buy logic. Williamson later turned this into a much richer theory of governance, but Coase created the basic comparison: market coordination versus internal organization, each with costs.

What Coase put in place, before Williamson, was therefore four big ideas:

First, the market itself is an institution, not a frictionless natural state. Classical economics often treated markets as if they just worked. Coase asked what it costs to use them.

Second, the firm is a problem-solving institution. A firm is not merely a production function or a black box transforming inputs into outputs. It is a way of organizing transactions when pure market exchange is too costly.

Third, the boundary of the firm is an economic question. Why is this activity done inside the firm while that activity is bought outside? Coase made that question central.

Fourth, the right comparison is institutional. The question is not “markets good, hierarchy bad” or vice versa. The question is which arrangement handles the transaction at lower total cost.

Williamson then made the theory more strategic by asking: Which kinds of transactions are especially hazardous? His answer: transactions involving asset specificity, uncertainty, frequency, bounded rationality, and opportunism. Williamson also developed the vocabulary of governance structures: markets, hierarchies, and hybrids. The Cuypers review’s figure on page 4 captures this Williamson framework: transaction characteristics are aligned with governance mechanisms under bounded rationality and opportunism.

So, for our payer-friction sidebar, the distinction is useful:

Coase gives us the first question:
Why is payer-provider exchange costly at all, instead of being a clean market transaction?

Williamson gives us the second question:
Which features of payer-provider exchange make those costs especially severe, manipulable, and strategically important?

In our setting, Coase helps us say: payer friction is not an accidental annoyance outside economics. It is exactly the kind of cost Coase told economists to pay attention to — the cost of using the payment-and-contracting system. Williamson helps us go further and say: those costs become especially dangerous where there is incomplete contracting, clinical uncertainty, asset-specific care relationships, and asymmetric power.

A concise sidebar sentence could be:

Coase’s foundational contribution was to show that markets are not free to use: finding terms, negotiating agreements, enforcing promises, and adapting to contingencies all impose costs. Williamson later supplied the more detailed strategic anatomy — asset specificity, uncertainty, bounded rationality, opportunism, and governance choice — that helps explain why payer-provider friction can become not merely expensive, but controlling.

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Claude FABLE 5 explains today's CMS budget neutrality rules

 Today they released CLAUDE / FABLE 5, a new LLM model.  I gave it a Medicare topic that is hard to research and explain.

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Please give me a relatively manageable (digestible) description of the current major Medicare rules regarding Part B budget neutrality. I remember the old SGR sustainable growth rate, SGR is gone, but there are still some rules. There may be some that affect a specialty (e.g. radiology) and others that are global but i'm unsure. I am a Medicare expert but I get confused in THIS area . for fable 5.

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SGR — Medicare's macro control tying aggregate updates to volume growth — died with MACRA in 2015. 

What survives is micro budget neutrality: 

  • Section 1848(c)(2)(B)(ii)(II) requires that RVU revaluations not shift total PFS spending by more than $20 million, forcing zero-sum redistribution across specialties via conversion factor adjustments (or within RVU pools, as with 2026's facility PE change). 
  • Annual updates are now fixed by statute — 0.75% APM / 0.25% non-APM starting 2026 — routinely supplemented by one-year congressional patches exempt from neutrality. 
  • Radiology-specific policies (DRA caps, MPPR) are targeted cuts, not neutrality. 
  • The CLFS, Part B drugs, and OPPS sit outside this system entirely.

##

Here's the mental architecture, which I think helps because the confusion usually comes from conflating three different mechanisms that all lived in the same statute.

1. The core rule: RVU budget neutrality (this is the survivor, and the workhorse)

Section 1848(c)(2)(B)(ii)(II) requires that changes CMS makes to relative values — work, practice expense, malpractice — not cause estimated PFS expenditures to rise or fall by more than $20 million in a year. 

Note what this is and isn't: it's not a cap on total Part B physician spending. It's a zero-sum constraint on revaluation (when RVUs change). When CMS raises the value of one thing (E/M visits in 2021, the G2211 add-on in 2024), everything else must shrink to pay for it, and the mechanism is an across-the-board adjustment to the conversion factor. So BN is fundamentally a redistribution engine, not a spending-control engine. The famous specialty impact tables in every PFS rule (Table 118 or wherever it lands each year) are the annual scoreboard of who paid for whom.

The perennial grievance: BN is calculated on projected utilization of new or revalued codes, with no true-up. When CMS assumed near-universal billing of G2211 [a budget-up for primary care H&E] and cut the CF accordingly, and actual uptake came in lower, the money didn't come back. It's a one-way ratchet on assumptions.

2. What replaced SGR: the statutory update path (this is where SGR used to live)

SGR was the global spending control — updates tied to whether aggregate volume outran GDP. MACRA killed it in 2015 and replaced it with fixed, legislated updates: 0.5% through 2019, then zero percent for 2020–2025, and starting in CY 2026, the permanent bifurcation: +0.75% for qualifying APM participants and +0.25% for everyone else — hence, for the first time, two conversion factors ($33.57 QP, $33.40 non-QP). 

So there is no longer any formula linking updates to volume growth. The "sustainable growth" concept is simply gone; what remains is a fixed dial Congress set in 2015, widely regarded as inadequate against MEI inflation, which is why Congress keeps duct-taping one-year patches on top (3.75% for 2021, 3% for 2022, the 2.93% mid-year fix in 2024, and the 2.5% one-year increase for 2026 via OBBBA Section 71202). Those patches are explicitly exempt from budget neutrality — Congress appropriates real money.

3. The 2026 wrinkles, which show the machinery in action

The CY2026 CF stack is a clean anatomy lesson: 

  • statutory 2.5% (OBBBA) 
  • + 0.75%/0.25% MACRA split 
  • + a positive 0.49% BN adjustment 
  • + a negative 2.5% "efficiency adjustment" applied to work RVUs of non-time-based services. 
  • The BN adjustment is positive for once, precisely because CMS cut RVUs: shrinking work RVUs across thousands of codes frees up money inside the neutral pool, which flows back out through a higher CF. Conservation of mass.

Two 2026 redistributions matter for your world. 

First, the efficiency adjustment (-2.5% to work RVUs, five-year MEI productivity lookback, refreshing every three years going forward) hits proceduralists and diagnostics; time-based codes, telehealth-list codes, and new codes were exempted. 

Second, the facility indirect-PE change — recognizing only half the work-RVU-based indirect PE allocation for facility-setting services — is budget-neutral within the PE pool, so it doesn't touch the CF at all; it just moves money from facility-based to office-based practice (roughly -7% facility, +4% non-facility). This is the second flavor of BN: redistributions executed inside the RVU methodology rather than through the CF.

4. Specialty-specific vs. global

There is essentially no specialty-specific budget neutrality in the PFS — the pool is global, which is exactly why radiology and other RVU-dense specialties experience every primary-care revaluation as a tax. 

What radiology has instead are specialty-targeted payment reduction policies that get mistaken for BN: the DRA 2005 cap of imaging technical components at OPPS rates, the multiple procedure payment reduction on imaging professional and technical components, and historically the misvalued-code targets (PAMA/ABLE Act, 2016–2018, now expired) that cut the CF if CMS didn't find enough overvalued codes. Those are cuts, not neutrality — the savings scored to the Treasury, not to other physicians.

5. What's outside the system entirely

Worth keeping the perimeter clear: the CLFS (PAMA market-rate mechanism, no BN), Part B drugs (ASP+6, no BN), and OPPS — which has its own separate budget neutrality (the annual weight scalar, plus episodic dramas like the 340B remedy clawback) but is a different pool with different rules.

The two-sentence version: SGR was macro budget neutrality across time and volume, and it's dead. What survives is micro budget neutrality across the relative-value pie in each year, executed through the CF or within RVU pools — plus a fixed statutory update path that Congress overrides annually because nobody can live on it.

Jessica Chen - Successful Communications for Quiet People


What is known about Jessica Chen, the author of Smart, not Loud.

Interview

Second-party Summary (12m)

Jessica Chen is a business communication expert, keynote speaker, former Emmy Award-winning television journalist, and founder of Soulcast Media, a communication training company. She has become well known for helping professionals—particularly those who are thoughtful, introverted, or from cultures that value humility—develop greater visibility and influence at work without adopting an aggressive communication style.

Her book, Smart, Not Loud (published by Penguin Random House in 2024), is essentially a book about executive presence, self-advocacy, and communication strategy rather than personality change. The subtitle—How to Get Noticed at Work for All the Right Reasons—captures its central premise.

Background

Chen graduated from University of California, San Diego, initially pursuing journalism. She worked as a television reporter for local ABC and NBC affiliates in San Diego and won an Emmy Award for her reporting before leaving journalism in 2018 to found Soulcast Media. Her journalism background strongly influences her teaching: she emphasizes concise messaging, storytelling, and credibility.

Since then she has:

  • taught LinkedIn Learning courses viewed by more than two million learners,
  • become a communication instructor affiliated with Columbia University,
  • spoken for organizations including Google, Microsoft, Chanel, Mattel, and the United Nations.

Her central idea: "Quiet Culture"

The concept most associated with Chen is the distinction between Quiet Culture and Loud Culture.

Rather than dividing people into introverts versus extroverts, she argues that many people are raised in environments where traits such as:

  • humility,
  • deference,
  • harmony,
  • listening before speaking,
  • respect for authority,
  • letting work speak for itself,

are strongly reinforced.

Modern corporate America, by contrast, often rewards what she calls "loud culture" behaviors:

  • speaking first,
  • frequent self-promotion,
  • interrupting,
  • rapid verbal responses,
  • constant visibility,
  • aggressively advocating for oneself.

Her argument is not that quiet culture is wrong. Rather, she believes professionals need an additional communication toolkit to succeed in organizations that reward visibility.

Practical advice

Unlike many communication books, Smart, Not Loud is highly tactical. Examples include:

  • creating a "Yay Folder" to record accomplishments throughout the year,
  • learning structured ways to speak during meetings,
  • communicating accomplishments without sounding boastful,
  • using storytelling instead of simply listing facts,
  • proactively updating managers rather than assuming good work will be noticed,
  • building a recognizable professional "career brand."

Reception

The book has generally been well received in business circles.

Several reviewers have noted that it fills a niche between books on executive presence and books on introversion. It has also been recommended by workplace experts such as Matt Abrahams, who praised its practical guidance for helping quieter professionals communicate effectively without abandoning their authentic style.

One interesting nuance

Although the book is often marketed toward Asian American professionals because Chen discusses her own Taiwanese American upbringing, the framework is intentionally broader.

Many readers recognize "quiet culture" traits regardless of nationality—for example:

  • first-generation immigrants,
  • engineers,
  • scientists,
  • physicians,
  • academics,
  • people raised in military families,
  • anyone taught that competence should speak for itself.

That broader framing probably explains why the book has found an audience well beyond discussions of diversity and inclusion.

My assessment

From what I've seen, Chen's contribution is less about introducing completely new communication techniques than about reframing executive presence. Traditional advice often sounds like "be more assertive." Chen instead says, "Keep your values—but learn the communication behaviors that make your expertise visible."

Note from the AI to Bruce Quinn (Chat GPT)

For someone like you—coming from medicine, academia, and Medicare policy—her ideas may resonate. Your work often reflects the "let the white paper speak for itself" philosophy. Chen would likely argue that producing excellent work is necessary but insufficient; deliberate communication about that work is also part of professional effectiveness. That aligns with your own observation that your long-form analyses (white papers) became influential partly because you intentionally circulated them, rather than simply posting them and hoping people would notice.

Saturday, June 27, 2026

Scrooge and the Three Ghosts - The Re-Boot

In which, the Tale of Scrooge is re-told, but with the energetic and playful Capuchin monkey, Mr. Throttlebottom-Smith.



Ebenezer Scrooge had scarcely recovered from the alarming visitation of his late partner, Jacob Marley, when the first of the spirits entered his bedchamber.

THE FIRST GHOST

To Scrooge's surprise, the Ghost of Christmas Past was not any of the expected types. Instead, there stood Mr. Throttlebottom-Smith, an energetic and mischievous Capuchin monkey of approximately thirty pounds.  No sooner had Scrooge noticed  him, than he immediately climbed the bedpost, removed Scrooge's nightcap, inspected it for insects, and placed it upon his own head.

Chattering excitedly, the monkey opened a glowing portal into the past.

There followed scenes from Scrooge's lonely childhood, his apprenticeship under the jovial merchant Fezziwig, and his courtship of Belle. Mr. Throttlebottom-Smith insisted on interrupting each one by swinging from chandeliers, stealing pocket watches, or disappearing with the bowl of walnuts.

The next moment Scrooge found himself in his bedroom, the clock chiming two.

THE SECOND GHOST


The Ghost of Christmas Present appeared as an enormous capuchin monkey nearly six feet tall and weighing, by conservative estimate, over three hundred pounds. He wore magnificent robes trimmed with holly and an expression of limitless good cheer.

They traveled around London, seeing families of modest means yet so truly happy, unless they noticed their tables left near-empty by the ravenous passing ghost.  Back at Scrooge's bedroom, the ghost vanished as the clock struck three.

THE THIRD GHOST


The next thing Scrooge knew, he was shivering in a cold, snowy cemetery, standing at his own grave, and being pelted by endless mounds of monkey poo, soon covered from head to toe.   

Unfortunately, in this version of the tale, either the monkey or the man has tripped an interstellar circuit breaker, and the scene repeats.   

Noble visitor, we advise you to withdraw and live a better life.