See original source at bottom. AI summarizes.
TL;DR: Is the NIH's grant process flawed, and would a "modified lottery" help?
Dr. Vinay Prasad criticizes the NIH's grant-funding system, proposing a "modified lottery" where grants passing a basic screening are awarded randomly. Critics argue this oversimplifies a complex process and ignores NIH’s successes, such as its significant contributions to biomedical science. Key objections include:
Oversights in Dr. Prasad’s Proposal:
- He lacks detailed plans, leaving questions like how to define "completeness" or balance fairness and scientific merit.
- Metrics he suggests (e.g., h-indices) are criticized as insufficient or easily gamed.
- The proposed five-year timeframe to evaluate outcomes is too short for meaningful scientific impact.
Critiques of the Current System:
- NIH study sections, while imperfect, effectively identify highly meritorious applications.
- The biggest problem is low paylines (only ~10% of applications get funded), creating a "lottery-like" situation among the best proposals already.
Modified Lottery Feasibility:
- Adding randomness could address biases and diversify funding but still requires robust peer review.
- Existing models for hybrid lottery systems (e.g., funding a fraction of top proposals randomly) might be better than Dr. Prasad’s vague ideas.
Concerns About Political Bias:
- Critics fear that aligning funding with ideological agendas (e.g., defunding "woke" universities) could undermine scientific meritocracy.
Ultimately, while a modified lottery isn’t inherently a bad idea, Dr. Prasad’s proposal lacks depth and ignores practical challenges. NIH reforms should focus on increasing funding and improving peer review, not replacing it with untested, ideologically driven systems.
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Are NIH study sections a waste of time?
Since the nomination of Dr. Jay Bhattacharya for NIH Director, I’ve been seeing a suggestion from certain contrarian doctors for a a “randomized trial” of study sections vs. a “modified lottery” to determine which grant applications are funded by the NIH. Just what the heck is Dr. Vinay Prasad talking about?
David Gorski on December 9, 2024