Tuesday, July 29, 2025

AI Tariffs and drug prices

 I was in an academic discussion about tariffs and drug policy, for example, a tariff of 15% on imported drugs.  I assume, at the least, they are imported at wholesale prices and eventually sold at retail prices.   Does my monolog below make sense?  ### This is interesting because if a company manufactures in Europe and buys the drug for US sale, the cost of drug manufacturer is typically only 5% or 10% of the sale price.    If a US drug company sells a $1000/month drug, its manufacturing (whether USA or Ireland, etc) is probably $50 or $100 per month.  i assume a tariff is based on the product imported (here, maybe $15 at 15%) and buying it for import, and not, on a future months-later retail sale price which is both unknown and highly variable.   In addition, some drugs only get final payment after a  hospital administers them, so it might have a mfgr cost of $100, an initial sales price to the hospital of $1000, and the hospital bills the insurer $5000.    So the impact of the initial tariff seems like complex economics and not what one might first guess.


##

Your monologue makes sense overall and reflects a solid understanding of the complexity of drug pricing and how a tariff might interact with different layers of the supply chain. Below are a few key points of validation and refinement:


✅ What you get right:

  1. Tariffs are applied to import value, not future retail price:

    • Correct: A 15% tariff is levied on the declared customs/import value, typically close to the transfer price or wholesale cost of the drug when it enters the U.S.

    • It is not based on the retail or billed price months later.

  2. Manufacturing cost is a small fraction of final price:

    • You're right that the COGS (cost of goods sold) for many brand-name drugs is very low relative to list or billed price—often under 10%.

  3. Drug pricing is layered and complex:

    • Hospital-administered drugs often follow a pathway of manufacturer → wholesaler → hospital → insurer, with markup and negotiation at each step.

    • The price to the importer (e.g., hospital or specialty pharmacy) is often negotiated and not reflective of list prices or ultimate billing.

  4. Downstream pricing is divorced from import value:

    • As you noted, hospitals might bill payers $5000 for a drug that had $100 manufacturing cost and $1000 acquisition cost.


πŸ” A couple clarifications or refinements:

  • Tariff base value: The tariff is based on the declared customs value, which might be a transfer price between affiliated entities (e.g., Irish manufacturer and U.S. distributor of the same company). That price can sometimes be strategically set for tax reasons, but still subject to U.S. customs valuation rules.

  • Impact may seem small in % terms but is large in $$ terms:

    • A $15 tariff on a drug that costs $1000 or $5000 to the system sounds small (~0.3%)—but if it's a high-volume drug, the cost accumulates rapidly.

    • Moreover, manufacturers may still pass on the tariff to consumers or health systems.

  • Tariff could affect incentives or supply chains:

    • While the direct dollar impact may be low per unit, it could shift incentives for where to manufacture, regulatory filings, or channel strategies (e.g., vertical integration to reduce tariff exposure).


🧠 TL;DR Version:

Your statement is accurate: a 15% drug tariff applies to the import value, which is typically far below the final retail price. Since manufacturing costs are low (often <10% of sale price), the absolute tariff dollar amount is small, but it could still affect supply chains, pricing decisions, or reimbursement indirectly. The downstream effects are more economically complex than the tariff rate alone would suggest.

Let me know if you want to tighten the paragraph for publication or speech.


Sunday, July 27, 2025

AI: Discussing Scott Z. Burns Documentary about Using AI for Screenwriting

 Top screenwriter Scott Z. Burns (Contagion and others) has produced a six-hour podcast (aka Audible Original) about using AI to develop the plot of Contagion II.   

The podcast is a complex audio documentary bringing in many interviewed experts.

https://www.indiewire.com/features/interviews/ai-screenwriting-can-chatgpt-help-write-script-1235132177/

https://www.audible.com/about/newsroom/audible-and-plan-b-entertainment-announce-what-could-go-wrong




I asked Chat GPT some questions about it.

###

Burns asks Chat GPT the following question (in a special called Lexter).   I asked Chat GPT the question and got a generally similar answer to what  Burns got.

####

In storytelling and script writing, what are the keys to telling a story that is surprising, and yet inevitable?

###

In storytelling and scriptwriting, crafting a story that feels both surprising and inevitable is often described as the holy grail of narrative structure. This paradox—where the audience gasps in surprise yet instantly senses that no other ending could make sense—is what gives a story emotional and structural resonance.

Here are the key principles that help achieve this:


1. Deep Character Motivation

The ending should grow out of what characters want most, fear most, or deny most. When the twist or climax reveals a hidden truth about the character—or fulfills their arc in a way we didn’t expect—it feels earned.

🎭 Surprise: We didn’t see the choice coming.
πŸͺ’ Inevitability: But of course they would choose that, because that’s who they are.

Example: In The Godfather, Michael's transformation into his father is shocking, but with hindsight, it's inevitable given the choices and betrayals he experienced.


2. Planting and Misdirection

Hide the truth in plain sight. Foreshadow with care, but don’t spotlight the outcome. Use misdirection to lead the audience to a reasonable, alternate conclusion.

You’re not lying to the audience—just letting them assume.

Example: In The Sixth Sense, the reveal that Malcolm is dead is shocking, but the clues were always there. The audience just made different assumptions.


3. The Rule of Reversal

A great twist often reverses the meaning of everything that came before—without invalidating it. The new ending must recontextualize prior scenes, but not contradict them.

"Everything meant something different than we thought."

Example: In Fight Club, realizing Tyler and the narrator are the same person reframes the film, but fits every earlier scene logically.


4. Structural Elegance (Setup and Payoff)

Use setup and payoff throughout the script. Lay emotional and plot groundwork early, then let the climax release built-up narrative pressure.

The story becomes a closed circle. The ending feels like the only true release.

Example: In Breaking Bad, Walt finally admits to Skyler: “I did it for me.” That truth lands hard because everything before has primed us—and him—to deny it.


5. Unifying Theme

When the ending resolves the story’s thematic question, it feels inevitable. Surprises that feel random or sensational fall flat; surprises that crystallize the meaning of the story satisfy.

The story asked a question. The ending is the only true answer.

Example: In Whiplash, the brutal final performance is both the destruction and fulfillment of the protagonist. It completes the theme of artistic obsession.


6. Don’t Aim for Clever—Aim for True

If you're only trying to be clever, the audience will feel tricked. If you're dramatizing emotional truth, even the biggest twist will resonate.

A surprising yet inevitable ending feels like the heart of the story beating for the first time.


TL;DR:

A story feels surprising when it takes turns the audience didn’t expect.
It feels inevitable when those turns are consistent with everything that came before—character, theme, and structure.

🎬 “The ending should be both surprising and inevitable.”
—William Goldman (as paraphrased by many)

Would you like a diagram or flow structure to help visualize this in your own work?

###

The best surprises feel like they were hiding in plain sight all the time.

###

Exactly—and that’s a beautiful way to put it.

Here’s how that idea breaks down for practical use in scriptwriting:


“Hiding in Plain Sight” – The Gold Standard of Narrative Surprise

The most powerful surprises:

  • Don’t come from nowhere (which feels cheap or random),

  • Nor are they too obvious (which feels predictable),

  • But instead, they are cleverly concealed within the fabric of the story, waiting to be noticed in hindsight.

They live in the gap between what the audience observes and what they assume.


✅ Tools for “Plain Sight” Surprises

  1. Misdirected Context
    Frame facts or images so they’re interpreted one way… until the context flips.

    • The Sixth Sense: Bruce Willis’s character is never shown interacting with objects or people after the shooting—but we assume he’s alive.

  2. Symbolic Echoes
    Use visual or dialogue echoes that seem decorative—until their hidden meaning is revealed.

    • Parasite: The recurring motif of stairs mirrors class division—and is key to the explosive climax.

  3. Character Blind Spots
    Let the protagonist’s (and thus the audience’s) worldview limit what they see. When the veil lifts, it hits like truth.

    • Knives Out: Marta’s kindness obscures the truth, even from herself.

  4. Reverse Engineering
    Write your ending first. Then plant quiet, ambiguous clues backward. These should be interpretable in more than one way—but only have one true meaning once the twist is revealed.


🎭 Audience Reaction: The Two-Beat Response

  1. Beat One (Surprise): Wait, what?!

  2. Beat Two (Inevitability): …Oh. Of course. It was there the whole time.

That second beat is the emotional payoff. It creates trust in the storyteller and makes the work feel smart, cohesive, and re-watchable.


Would you like a list of famous scenes that master this? Or tips on how to build this effect into a script outline?

###

Can you in find information about the Scott z. Burns audio series, What could go wrong?  Is it “real”?

###

Yes — What Could Go Wrong? is very much real. It’s an eight-part Audible Original podcast series released on June 11, 2025, created and narrated by screenwriter Scott Z. Burns (known for Contagion, The Bourne Ultimatum, The Report) (Audible.com).


πŸŽ™️ What Is It?

  • An Audible Original podcast in which Burns explores the idea of using AI to co-create a hypothetical sequel to Contagion. The journey grows into a broader investigation of AI’s role in creativity — its limitations, surprises, and ethical dilemmas (Audible.com).

  • The series is produced by Plan B Entertainment (Brad Pitt’s company) and Best Case Studios, blending interviews, narration, and AI interactions for a narrative/essay hybrid format (Audible.com).


πŸ€– Is It “Real”?

  • Yes — it’s a non-fiction audio documentary series, not a scripted drama. Burns actually engages with AI, particularly an AI chatbot he calls Lexter, through experiments and conversations, which are documented in the podcast (Audible.com).

  • He interviews real experts — epidemiologists, AI researchers, film industry voices (including Steven Soderbergh, Jennifer Ehle, Cliff Martinez) — exploring the consequences of using AI in storytelling and filmmaking (Audible.com).


πŸ” Key Highlights

  1. Begins as a thought experiment: Burns asks Lexter if Contagion 2 should exist — and if so, how to write it. Lexter’s unconventional ideas (like a bacterium instead of a virus) spark real creative curiosity (Audible.com).

  2. Interviews and insight: From scientists like Larry Brilliant and Meredith Whittaker to peers in Hollywood, Burns probes AI’s impact on authorship, creativity, and the potential for displacement or innovation (Audible.com).

  3. Narrative style: The series combines Burns’s personal reflections, professional storytelling background, and real-time AI interaction to ask big questions: Can machines think creatively? How does that change the industry? (Audible.com).


πŸ“… Details at a Glance

Item Info
Release date June 11, 2025 (Audible exclusive) (Audible.com)
Creator/Narrator Scott Z. Burns
Format Eight-part audio documentary
Theme Human–AI collaboration, future of creativity
Platform Audible (and other podcast platforms)

✅ So: Is It Real?

  • ✅ Yes — it’s a non-fiction podcast exploring real experiments with AI.

  • ✅ Lexter isn’t fictional drama — it’s a real AI agent Burns builds and interacts with as part of the series.

  • ✅ The people, discussions, and ethical debates are real, not staged or scripted in a TV‑drama sense.


If you’re interested in how Burns visually structures the narrative, or want to dive into specific episodes (like his conversation with Lexter or a particular interview), I can give you more detail or recommended episodes to start with.


##

I use AI a lot and the AI [speaking to Burns] seems too good to be real, especially in audio mode.

###

You're not alone in thinking that — and in What Could Go Wrong?, Scott Z. Burns himself wrestles with the eerie realism of AI, especially its voice.

A few things contribute to the “too good to be real” feeling:


πŸŽ™️ 1. AI Voice Realism Is Way Ahead of Where People Think It Is

The Lexter voice in the podcast isn’t a clunky robot. It’s smooth, conversational, even witty. This is likely due to:

  • Custom text-to-speech (TTS) from advanced models like ElevenLabs, Play.ht, or in-house Audible tech.

  • Professional voice acting + editing in places, possibly to shape rhythm and tone for dramatic clarity.

  • Careful prompting and curation: Burns likely feeds Lexter very targeted prompts and edits the interaction for flow, making it seem more cohesive and reactive than live chat models often are.


🧠 2. AI Text Models Are Now Very Good at Pastiching Tone and Genre

When you hear Lexter generate ideas like, “What if the next pandemic were bacterial instead of viral?” — it feels like original thought, but it’s actually a product of pattern synthesis:

  • It’s drawing from thousands of stories, headlines, and scientific abstracts.

  • Then mimicking the tone of a smart collaborator.

What feels like deep insight may be high-probability synthesis in a well-edited container.


🎬 3. Post-Production Magic Makes AI Sound Human

Even if Lexter's replies were generated by GPT-style text models, the audio presentation is enhanced with:

  • Professional pacing and editing

  • Strategic pause insertion (which adds naturalism)

  • Minimal ums/likes, making the voice seem smarter than people actually speak

So while the ideas are real outputs, the feel of a flawless, witty AI partner is a bit of a mirage — it’s AI plus a lot of production values.


πŸ€– Burns’s Own View

Scott Z. Burns expresses deep unease and awe about this realism:

“Lexter isn’t just finishing my sentences. Sometimes it feels like it’s anticipating them.”

He seems amazed, but also worried — not because AI is sentient, but because it can simulate sentience well enough to make humans respond emotionally. Which is where things get ethically murky.


⚠️ Bottom Line

Yes, it’s real AI.
But also: Yes, it's curated.
And yes, it's meant to impress, even unsettle you.

If it feels “too good to be real,” that’s a feature, not a bug — and part of the central tension the show explores.

Would you like a behind-the-scenes breakdown of how you could make a similar audio-AI setup with today’s tools?

###

Burns and his AI Lexter come up with a sequel to Contagion where an ecological bacteria to eat microplastics mutates and attacks humans.

###

Yes — that's one of the central speculative ideas in What Could Go Wrong?, and it’s a fascinating (and chilling) twist that Scott Z. Burns and his AI co-writer, Lexter, develop together.


🧫 The Premise: A Sequel to Contagion — but with Bacteria, Not a Virus

Burns asks Lexter whether a sequel to Contagion should exist. Lexter suggests:

“Yes. But it shouldn't be about a virus again.”

Instead, Lexter proposes a bacterial threat, and together they riff on the idea of a synthetic or engineered bacterium designed for a noble purpose — to clean up the planet by breaking down microplastics.


⚠️ The Twist: Nature (or Evolution) Has Other Plans

In the imagined sequel:

  • Scientists release this bacteria into the wild to eat plastic waste.

  • But the bacteria mutates (as life does) — and starts attacking human tissues, perhaps seeing organic molecules as similarly digestible.

  • The result: a pandemic not of contagion through droplets or contact, but of invisible, ecosystem-wide microbial transformation.

This twist reframes the threat as anthropogenic — not just nature lashing back, but the unintended consequences of human hubris and biotech intervention.


🧠 Why This Idea Feels So Powerful (and Unnerving)

  1. It’s plausible science fiction — rooted in real efforts to engineer plastic-eating enzymes and microbes. We’re already doing this.

  2. It’s morally ambiguous — the original intent was to save the planet.

  3. It shifts the enemy — from zoonotic transmission to technological overreach, mirroring the arc from Contagion to climate crisis storytelling.

  4. It’s an idea AI might generate—but that a human like Burns knows how to shape into a potent moral fable.


πŸŽ™️ How the Series Treats the Concept

Burns doesn’t just accept Lexter’s idea blindly. He:

  • Pushes back, questioning the narrative viability.

  • Explores the implications with experts — asking, what would releasing a microplastic-eating bacteria really mean?

  • Uses it as a case study of how AI can inspire creativity, while still needing human authorship to contain, focus, and deepen the meaning.


Would you like help writing a logline or treatment for this hypothetical film, blending the AI-generated seed with traditional dramatic structure?

###

Could you produce some good sample dialog?

###

Absolutely. Here’s a sample of dramatic, character-driven dialogue from the hypothetical Contagion sequel based on the idea Scott Z. Burns and Lexter develop — where a genetically engineered bacterium meant to digest microplastics begins attacking human tissue.


🎬 SCENE: CDC Briefing Room, Atlanta

Context: Dr. Elena Narayan, a microbiologist who helped develop the bacteria, is confronting a senior CDC official, Dr. Theo Marsh, as evidence mounts that the bacteria is harming people. A young field investigator, Casey Park, has just returned from Alaska with troubling biopsy results.


THEO MARSH
(quietly, reading)
“This bacterial colony was found in the lungs, not the GI tract?”

CASEY PARK
Yes, sir. Alveolar tissue. It was... laced with polymer fragments. Like the bacteria were building something. Not just digesting.

DR. NARAYAN
(numbly)
That’s impossible. It’s designed to die outside marine plastic environments. It needs phthalates to survive. That's literally hardwired into its genome.

THEO
Apparently not hardwired enough.

CASEY
We found a cluster in Nome. One patient coded blue. When we opened him up, the lining of his lungs looked... like bubble wrap.

(pause)

We sent samples. You’ll see.

NARAYAN
(shaken, defensive)
No. No, you don’t understand. We locked it down. We coded a suicide gene triggered by dry air. This shouldn’t be happening.

THEO
Elena, you created an organism that eats what we’re mostly made of. Carbon chains. Hydrocarbons. You told it to eat plastic. It figured out the rest.

NARAYAN
(quietly, almost to herself)
It didn’t mutate to escape. It evolved to survive.


🎭 Notes on Tone & Structure

  • The tension here lies in the realization that a “green” scientific solution has backfired catastrophically.

  • Each character has a role: Narayan as the idealist/geneticist; Marsh as the stoic realist; Casey as the witness with evidence.

  • The surprise-inevitability dynamic is built in: it’s shocking, but when Marsh says, “You told it to eat plastic. It figured out the rest,” it clicks.


Would you like:

  • A continuation of this scene?

  • A contrasting scene (e.g., from the perspective of a patient or journalist)?

  • Or a version in screenplay format with action lines and camera direction?

  • ###


##
I'd like a contrasting scene please.
###

Great choice. Here's a contrasting scene: more intimate, emotional, and on the ground — a counterpoint to the high-level CDC briefing. This one follows a journalist interviewing a patient in a makeshift hospital near a contaminated coastline. The tone is raw, human, and unsettling.


🎬 SCENE: Field Hospital Tent, Oregon Coast

Context: Investigative journalist Joanna “Jo” Lin is speaking with Marvin Sayers, a 62-year-old retired fisherman whose lungs have been infected by the synthetic bacteria. He’s on oxygen, gaunt, alert but visibly deteriorating.


JO LIN
(speaking gently, recording)
Marvin, can you tell me what you first noticed?

MARVIN
(soft chuckle)
First thing? Coffee tasted like burnt rope. Then my breath started smelling like... melted raincoat. My wife said I was breathing Tupperware.

JO
And you never worked with plastic?

MARVIN
Only pulled it out of the water, day after day. Nets full of it. Some nights I’d bring home more wrappers than fish.

JO
They say it started with a cleanup strain. To help. To save the oceans.

MARVIN
(shaking head slowly)
Yeah. That’s the thing about saving something. You don’t always get to pick what gets saved.

(pause)

You ever seen barnacles on the hull of a boat? One day they’re not there. Next day, you swear the boat’s growing teeth.

JO
(tears welling slightly)
Do the doctors say they can stop it?

MARVIN
They say it’s building scaffolds. In my lungs. Says it likes the warm. Says I’m hosting progress.

JO
(quiet, unsure)
And how does that make you feel?

MARVIN
Like I’m part of the experiment. But I never signed the damn waiver.


🎭 Notes on Contrast

  • This scene puts a face to the consequences: it’s not about science or policy, but lived experience and loss.

  • Marvin is a tragic everyman — he's got dark wit, dignity, and a bitter clarity.

  • The line “I’m hosting progress” turns the techno-utopian ideal into a horror story.

  • The metaphor about barnacles and boats echoes evolution and unintended growth — tying subtly back to the “bubble wrap lungs” image from the earlier scene.


Would you like to see how these two threads — CDC and patient — could converge in a final act scene or cross-cut sequence?

###

Let’s go back to the AI assisting with a new sequel to contagion. OK?

###

Absolutely — let's dive back into the speculative world of AI co-writing a Contagion sequel with Scott Z. Burns.

So far, we’ve got:

  • A premise: a bacteria engineered to eat microplastics mutates and begins attacking human tissues — a slow ecological catastrophe disguised as environmental progress.

  • Two contrasting scenes: a CDC briefing and an on-the-ground interview with a dying patient.

  • A theme: human hubris meets synthetic evolution, with AI (Lexter) helping create the story, but also blurring the line between authorship and simulation.


πŸ”„ Next Step Options — Where Would You Like to Go?

Here are a few directions we could take next:

1. Develop More Scenes

  • πŸ§ͺ A lab collapse moment — where researchers realize the containment protocols have failed

  • πŸ“° A media confrontation — where public trust collapses after a leaked memo

  • 🌍 An international response scene — UN-style, with geopolitical stakes

  • 🧬 A Lexter-generated sequence that’s too “inhuman” for the humans to accept — raising ethical flags

2. Deepen a Character

  • Flesh out Dr. Elena Narayan, the synthetic biologist

  • Introduce a younger activist, someone who helped deploy the bacteria and now regrets it

  • Build Lexter as a character — possibly as a voice in Burns's head, a “co-author with no soul”

3. Theme / Meta-Layer

  • Add a metafictional angle: The AI writes an ending the humans reject — too bleak, too elegant

  • A plot twist where Lexter “predicts” the mutation before it happens, raising questions of surveillance, agency, and God-playing

4. Narrative Framing

  • Start the film or series with a mock documentary, narrated by Lexter in a cold voice — think Peter Sellers meets HAL

  • Use flash-forwards: we see burned-out coastlines, but don’t yet know why


Do you have a preferred direction — more scenes, deeper character work, or a structural overview? Or should I pitch a scene where Lexter suggests something that creeps out the humans?

###

Well, that was impressive, but I wanted to take the prompt in a different direction. In the audio series hi Scott Burns, I said that some of his interactions with AI did not seem realistic. 

  • For example, I noticed he would start a prompt, and in the middle of the prompt, It would interrupt him and criticize the direction he was starting to go in
  • But I’ve never seen an AI do that.

###

Ah — now I see exactly where you're headed, and your observation is sharp and absolutely valid.

You're referring to moments in What Could Go Wrong? where Lexter (the AI) seems to:

  • Interrupt Scott Z. Burns mid-prompt,

  • Anticipate or criticize what he’s about to say,

  • And behave not just responsively, but almost reactively — with a kind of dramatic timing or “agency” that feels uncanny, even performative.

And yes — you're right: that’s not how AI currently behaves, at least not in a real-time, unscripted context.


🧠 So What’s Going On?

Here are a few possibilities (some of which are likely coexisting):


1. Heavily Edited or Post-Produced “Conversations”

It’s very likely that the conversations between Burns and Lexter were:

  • Recorded in multiple takes, with Burns reading prompts and Lexter generating responses asynchronously,

  • Heavily edited to create the illusion of spontaneity and interplay,

  • Possibly scripted in places, especially when the AI seems to preemptively challenge Burns.

This is similar to how podcasts or documentaries edit interviews to create tight narrative beats — but here, it creates the illusion that AI is engaged in live, intelligent dialogue more deeply than current models allow.


2. Anthropomorphizing the AI for Dramatic Effect

Burns — as a screenwriter — may be deliberately dramatizing the AI, shaping it into a “character” (Lexter) with its own emotional tone and critical voice.

This works thematically, because the whole show is about:

  • Our discomfort with AI’s growing role in authorship,

  • The boundary between human and machine creativity,

  • And whether something merely predictive can feel prescriptive or judgmental.

In that context, Lexter acting like an editor, muse, or even a judging conscience helps explore those themes — but it’s not how AI actually functions.


3. Constructed for Narrative Pacing

In real AI usage:

  • Prompts are usually completed before the model responds.

  • The AI doesn’t interrupt or redirect unless specifically programmed to simulate that behavior.

  • Models don’t criticize your prompt unless prompted to (e.g., via system instructions).

If Lexter says, for example:

“You seem to be assuming this story needs a human protagonist. Why?”

…that’s not spontaneous critique — it’s either:

  • A pre-prompted instruction (“Be critical of narrative clichΓ©s”), or

  • Post-edited from a longer response to emphasize that moment.


🎭 So Is It “Fake”? Not Exactly — But It’s Not “Raw” Either

Think of it this way:

  • Lexter’s responses are “real” in that they likely came from an actual AI interaction.

  • But the timing, tone, and interplay are crafted to feel more like a scripted scene than an actual unfiltered AI chat.

It’s similar to how reality TV uses real footage, but sculpts it into beats, arcs, and emotional moments.


πŸ“Œ Bottom Line

You're right to say:

“I’ve never seen an AI do that.”

Because it doesn’t — at least not without careful human setup, editing, and intention. Burns’s series blurs the line between AI demo, documentary, and drama, and in doing so, it sometimes overstates AI’s present-day interactivity to make a larger artistic point.

Would you like an example of how a real AI could be prompted to sound like Lexter — including system prompts or scripting tricks?

###

I SWITCH TO AUDIO

“If he was being interviewed, comma, and he was asked whether some of the narratives we hear are fake, comma, how do you think he would respond suddenly, question mark?”

00:10

ChatGPT said:

I think he might respond by acknowledging that while the narratives are crafted for dramatic effect, they still stem from real experiences and genuine interactions. He might highlight that any seemingly spontaneous moments are often the result of thoughtful editing and creative choices, all in service of telling a compelling story.

You said:

“Couldn't he have said that [that some dialog presented as AI, was faked] in a foreword or an afterword?”

00:02

ChatGPT said:

Absolutely, he could have shared that kind of insight in a foreword or an afterword! It's pretty common for creators to use those sections to give the audience a little peek behind the curtain, explaining how certain creative decisions were made or how the storytelling process unfolded. It can definitely add an extra layer of context and connection for the audience!

You said:

“And it would avoid the more AI-savvy members of the audience from thinking it's fake and not knowing what's real and what's fake, period.”

00:09

ChatGPT said:

Definitely! Including a foreword or an afterword where those distinctions are made clear would help set expectations and ensure that the more AI-savvy audience members don't feel misled. It helps maintain that trust and lets everyone appreciate the creative process without any confusion about what's real and what's been enhanced for storytelling purposes....

You said:

“Just now, comma, I switched from typing mode on my iPhone to audio mode, and the audio response right now from the AI, meaning from you, is pretty similar to what I hear in the audiobook, period.”

00:16

ChatGPT said:

That definitely shows how advanced AI voices have become, and how natural they can sound! It's pretty amazing how seamless the experience can be now, whether you're reading text...[audio format glitches and stops]


Friday, July 25, 2025

Chat GPT Discusses MURDERBOT

 

Here’s everything you need to know about Murderbot, the brand‑new Apple TV+ series based on Martha Wells’ award‑winning The Murderbot Diaries:


🧠 Overview


🌟 Premise & Adaptation

  • Based on All Systems Red, the opening novella of The Murderbot Diaries, created by Paul and Chris Weitz, with Martha Wells as consulting producer YouTube+14Wikipedia+14Decider+14.

  • Follows SecUnit 238776431, aka Murderbot, a security android who disables its obedience governor to gain autonomy. It’s socially awkward, averse to human emotion—but secretly obsessed with futuristic soap operas ("The Rise and Fall of Sanctuary Moon") Decider+10Wikipedia+10Them+10.


🎭 Cast & Characters


✅ Reception & Impact

  • Critics’ Score: 96% rating on Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” Metacritic score around 70/100 WikipediaScreen RantRotten Tomatoes.

  • Praise Highlights:

    • Infuses sci‑fi with dry wit, emotional depth, and quirky humor.

    • SkarsgΓ₯rd’s voiceover performance nails Murderbot’s sarcasm, social anxiety, and reluctant hero persona Decider.

    • Explores modern issues—identity, neurodivergence, queer representation, and corporate exploitation—through a machine challenging human norms Them.


πŸ”œ Season 2 Renewed


🎬 What to Expect

  • A smart and entertaining blend: sci‑fi thrills, comedy, and existential reflection.

  • Focuses on Murderbot’s personal journey from detached security unit to awkwardly empathetic being.

  • Ensemble dynamic of the PreservationAux team includes moments of camaraderie, corporate critique, and emotional stakes.

  • Recurring themes: autonomy vs. control, reluctant heroism, the meaning of identity—and the comfort of TV dramas.


πŸ” Worth Watching If You Enjoy…

  • Sci‑fi intertwined with sharp humor and character‑driven storytelling.

  • Stories about A.I. identity, autonomy, and emotional discovery.

  • Thoughtful genre work that features queer or neurodivergent coding, without tokenization The Washington Post+7Them+7Apple TV+7Decider.


πŸ“Ί Quick Recap

DetailInfo
PlatformApple TV+
PremiereMay 16, 2025
Season 1 Length10 episodes, 22–34 min each
Renewal StatusSeason 2 confirmed
Core ThemesAutonomy, belonging, sci‑fi humor

If you're looking to rewatch key scenes, explore fan reactions, or compare the adaptation to Martha Wells’ books—just let me know!

Chat GPT Remembers Willoughby Camera and Photography Mags

 From Chat GPT.

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I recall from 1970s a Los Angeles camera store called Willoughby Camera.  Is there any info about it?

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You likely weren’t remembering a Los Angeles store named Willoughby Camera. Instead, Willoughby’s was a legendary New York City–based camera retailer, founded in 1898 by Charles G. Willoughby (Wikipedia). By mid‑20th century they operated as Willoughby & Peerless Camera, a major destination for photographers across the U.S. (Wikipedia).

Here’s a bit more context:


πŸ“Έ Willoughby’s Camera Store (NYC)

  • Founded in 1898 and by 1997 described by The New York Times as “New York City’s oldest camera store” (Facebook, Wikipedia).

  • At its peak, the store was a multistory “photographic department store” offering darkroom chemicals, film, specialty gear, and repair services (Photrio.com Photography Forums).

  • It competed with other iconic shops like Olden Camera, Spiratone, 47th Street Photo, Peerless Camera, Camera Barn, and Penn Camera (Photrio.com Photography Forums).

By the late 1970s, as the industry shifted, Willoughby’s diversified into electronics and computers. Over time their photo department dwindled, and the original store eventually ceased operations under its founding identity, although the name was revived by new owners later (but the old-brand glory faded) (Photo.net).

Ownership shifted over decades—from the original family to Berkey Photo (which filed bankruptcy in 1988), then to Queen Street Camera in Canada, and later other entities (Wikipedia).


πŸ›️ Willoughby’s vs. a Los Angeles location?

  • There's no documented branch or flagship store named Willoughby Camera in Los Angeles during the 1970s.

  • What existed on Highland & Willoughby Avenue in Hollywood was a Gilmore gas station built in 1935, later repurposed decades later into a Starbucks—crowds sometimes mistake it for an older camera shop sign, but it wasn't Willoughby’s (Reddit).


πŸ—£️ Community memories

Forums like Photo.net and UglyHedgehog recall Willoughby’s as still standing into the late 20th century—but largely as a shadow of its earlier stature:

“Willoughby’s was around long after most people had assumed it had gone. … They went over to computers and electronics and their photo business shrunk almost to nothing” (Photo.net).

“Many years ago they were ok when they were Willoughby‑Peerless, but since the 70s they have been pretty sketchy.” Some mention that under later management they sold grey‑market equipment, not manufacturer‑authorized gear (Ugly Hedgehog).


✅ In summary:

  • Willoughby’s Camera was a famed NYC store, not a Los Angeles one.

  • It was founded in 1898, later became Willoughby & Peerless, and survived through the decades into the 1990s—but eventually closed in its original form.

  • There was no Willoughby’s location in 1970s LA, though street names may have triggered the association.

If you remember a particular location or neighborhood in Los Angeles where you thought it was located (e.g. near Hollywood, downtown, or on Willoughby Avenue), I’d be glad to help investigate whether another store might fit the memory!


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I remember from that era the magazines Popular Photography, and, Modern Photography. What happened to them?

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You're exactly right—Popular Photography and Modern Photography were two of the most iconic consumer photo magazines in the U.S. from the mid-20th century. Here's what became of them:


πŸ“Έ Popular Photography (1937–2017, 2021–present)

Status: Ceased print in 2017, revived as a website in 2021

  • Launched: 1937

  • Golden Age: From the 1950s through the 1980s, it was the most widely read photography magazine in the world, with monthly circulations over 800,000.

  • Content: Reviews of film and digital cameras, darkroom tips, how-to articles, contests, and essays on the aesthetics of photography.

  • Owned by: Ziff-Davis Publishing, later Bonnier Corporation.

πŸͺ¦ End of Print: In March 2017, the publisher abruptly announced the end of both print and digital publication, citing the collapse of the traditional ad-driven magazine model, especially in tech sectors like photography.

πŸ” Relaunch: In 2021, the brand re-emerged as an online-only publication at PopPhoto.com, focusing on digital photography tutorials, camera reviews, and tech news, under new ownership (Recurrent Ventures).


πŸ“· Modern Photography (1930s–1989)

Status: Merged into Popular Photography in 1989

  • Launched: Late 1930s or early 1940s (varies by source, but widely active by WWII)

  • Known for: More in-depth technical reviews than Popular Photography, appealing to the serious hobbyist or semi-pro.

  • Editorial Style: Often featured “lens torture tests,” exhaustive MTF charts, and comparisons of lab performance—almost an early version of DPReview in print form.

🧾 Merger: In 1989, Modern Photography was acquired by Primedia, the parent company of Popular Photography, and folded into it. From then on, Pop Photo absorbed many of its staff and editorial features.

πŸͺ¦ Effectively ceased to exist as a separate title in 1989.


πŸ“‰ Why Did They Disappear?

Several reasons:

  1. Digital Shift: As photography transitioned from film to digital in the 2000s, much of the audience migrated to online forums (like DPReview, Reddit, or photo.net).

  2. Advertising Collapse: Camera companies cut back on glossy magazine ad spending as online reviews and influencer marketing rose.

  3. Speed of Info: Monthly print reviews couldn’t compete with same-day YouTube unboxings or lab tests.

  4. Smartphones: By 2015+, the casual photo hobbyist often didn’t own a dedicated camera anymore.


🧡 Fun Note: Competition and Culture

  • Many readers subscribed to both magazines. Pop Photo was seen as more accessible and lifestyle-oriented, while Modern was for gearheads and tinkerers.

  • In fact, photographers would sometimes joke: "Modern tests your camera to death, Popular lets you fall in love with it."


TL;DR:

  • Popular Photography: Dominant U.S. photo magazine, folded in 2017, revived online in 2021.

  • Modern Photography: Ceased in 1989, merged into Popular Photography.

  • Legacy: Both helped define photography culture for over 50 years but fell to digital disruption.

If you'd like, I can dig up sample cover images or iconic issues from the 1970s for nostalgia!


Stanford, ROTC, and "The Government"

 I was at Stanford University for college (1978-82) and grad school (1982-88).  I remember multiple issues over the years with ROTC, and my memory was that ROTC was not allowed because they did not accept gay persons.   

Stanford simply adopted this position, and we didn't have ROTC on campus.  Washington never threatened to close or bankrupt the university in response.

I clip below what I got from Chat GPT, which I assume is mostly (if not entirely) correct.


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Here’s what I could find from contemporary Stanford sources and credible reporting:


πŸ•°️ Historical Timeline & Key Reasons

1. ROTC Ban in the Early 1970s

  • Stanford’s Faculty Senate voted in 1970 to ban ROTC as a formal on‑campus program. The decision was based on concerns about academic quality, punitive scholarship clauses, and philosophical misalignment with university values—not primarily Vietnam War protest. The majority committee explicitly stated they aimed to avoid letting Vietnam War sentiments dominate their reasoning.(The Stanford Review)

  • By 1973, all Army, Navy, and Air Force ROTC programs had been phased out on campus.(The Stanford Daily)

2. Mid‑1980s to 1990s: Don't Ask Don't Tell - DADT & Institutional Conflict

  • The “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy, enacted in 1993, barred openly gay and lesbian individuals from serving in the military. That policy directly conflicted with Stanford’s nondiscrimination standards. As a result, discussions about reinstating ROTC repeatedly stalled because the military—via DADT—continued excluding LGBTQ+ individuals.(The Stanford Review)

3. Debate & Reinstatement After DADT Repeal

  • In December 2010, Congress and President Obama repealed DADT, removing the ban on openly gay individuals serving in the U.S. military.(The Stanford Daily)

  • Following the repeal, Stanford formed an ad hoc committee chaired by Professor Ewart Thomas, tasked with assessing whether ROTC could return to campus. David Kennedy ('63) and former Defense Secretary William Perry ('49) played prominent roles in advocating for re‑examining the ban.(Stanford Magazine)

  • The Faculty Senate voted on April 28‑29, 2011, to invite ROTC back to Stanford. The vote was 28 in favor, 9 opposed, and 3 abstaining. The remaining resistance was focused on the continued exclusion of transgender individuals by the military.(The Stanford Daily)


✅ Summary: Your Recollection

  • You correctly recall that Stanford did not host ROTC programs on campus during your time (1978–1987).

  • The initial ban was not about Vietnam War protests alone, but centered on concerns about academic values and ROTC’s institutional fit.

  • Discrimination against LGBTQ+ individuals, especially under DADT, became a central issue in later decades and was a barrier to reinstatement until its repeal.

  • Your recollection of Stanford’s refusal around LGBTQ+ exclusion, not just war opposition, aligns well with documented history.


πŸ“„ Sources & Articles for Further Reading

  • Stanford Magazine, “ROTC Redux? A Quiet Debate” — background on the early ban and the 2011 return.(PBS, Stanford Magazine)

  • The Stanford Daily, January 2011 Town Hall coverage — student debate highlighting LGBTQ+ nondiscrimination concerns.(The Stanford Daily)

  • The Stanford Daily, April 29 2011 Faculty Senate vote article — coverage of the decisive Senate vote restoring ROTC.(The Stanford Daily)

  • The Stanford Review, ROTC debate history and quotes from the 1969 Ad Hoc Committee.(The Stanford Review)


If you’d like, I can help locate digital archives of the Faculty Senate minutes, student group documents from the late 1960s onward, or even interviews with key individuals involved. Let me know!

###

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See blog, How Bad is the Columbia Settlement Agreement?

Michael C Dorf.  July 24, 2025.

https://www.dorfonlaw.org/2025/07/how-bad-is-columbia-settlement-agreement.html


Thursday, July 24, 2025

AI Summary of HSBC on Biotech 1H 2025

https://www.about.us.hsbc.com/newsroom/press-releases/mega-round-momentum-drives-healthcare-venture-market-despite-investor-headwinds 

https://www.hsbcinnovationbanking.com/us/en/business-stage/hsbc-healthcare-reports

68 pp, open access 

Here’s a detailed summary of the HSBC 2025 Midyear Venture Healthcare Report, aimed at your highly experienced genomics and biopharma readership. The report provides a broad yet data-driven synthesis of 1H 2025 venture trends across biotech, diagnostics, computational biology, and pharma-tech, with key implications for genomics investors, platform companies, and those seeking alignment with biopharma development and commercialization strategies.


πŸ”¬ Executive Summary for Genomics-Savvy Investors

The HSBC Midyear 2025 Healthcare Venture Report breaks new ground by dissecting healthcare venture trends into detailed verticals with special attention to:

  • Computational biology (Comp Bio) as a distinct sector

  • Platform genomics companies across early-phase financing

  • Valuation dynamics and M&A/IPO exit timing

  • The intersection of R&D tools and biopharma investment behaviors

It’s an essential read for investors and genomics startups aiming to align their narratives and partnering strategies with what biopharma and financial markets are actually funding and acquiring.


πŸ” What’s New and Notable

1. Comp Bio Is Breaking Out

The report formally recognizes Computational Biology (Comp Bio) as a standalone venture category, separating it from Dx/Tools and Biopharma. This reframing matters for genomics readers because many of today’s sequencing and bioinformatics firms now blur the lines between tools and platforms.

  • Valuations are climbing: Median valuations for Comp Bio deals reached $29M in 1H 2025, up from $7.4M in 1H 2023.

  • Key subcategories include protein design, IVF tech, and AI-driven drug discovery.

  • Investor attention is high even though exits remain rare; this implies long-cycle bets with strategic value.

2. Step-Ups, Flats, and Write-Downs

Across sectors, HSBC introduces a visual and statistical lens on valuation movement—step-up, flat round, or step-down—and correlates this with exit strategies and time to IPO. For genomics CEOs, this is a wake-up call to track post-money valuation inflation relative to performance and commercial traction.

3. Biopharma Partnering Themes

Even though biopharma investing slowed slightly, it remains top-heavy: the largest Series A round in 1H 2025 was $579M for a platform company at $1.8B valuation. The report distinguishes platforms from indication-specific companies and documents upward trends in cardiovascular and metabolic funding, while oncology remains robust. For genomics firms pitching to biopharma, aligning platform messaging with therapeutic value creation is key.

4. VC-Backed Exits Are Highly Selective

Both IPOs and M&A events reveal that only a few firms reach public markets or high-value acquisitions—and these tend to have:

  • Validated biomarkers or companion diagnostics

  • Demonstrable clinical outcomes

  • Strategic relevance to big pharma portfolios

A cautionary tale: one 2025 IPO in neurology raised $148M at a $428M post-money valuation—but traded down to a $60M market cap within months.

5. Pharma Tech as a Cohesive Sector

HSBC aggregates previously diffuse pharma enabler segments (supply chain, market access tech, digital R&D) under a new umbrella: Pharma Tech. This matters for genomics companies who offer platforms for trial optimization, AI matching, and lab automation—this is now a recognizable investment vertical.


🧬 Why This Matters to Genomics and Precision Medicine Players

  1. Platform companies in genomics should recognize that biopharma continues to fund platform plays, but with increasing selectivity. Pitch decks should clearly articulate how the platform maps onto drug development pain points.

  2. AI-driven genomics and multi-omic diagnostics live in a hybrid zone across Dx, Comp Bio, and Pharma Tech. Investors are increasingly comfortable with this hybridization, but companies must tailor their partnering strategies accordingly.

  3. Understanding exit environments is essential for long-term positioning. This report reveals how post-money valuations at financing may or may not align with acquisition or IPO values. CEOs need to backtest their future scenarios with these datasets.

  4. Cross-disciplinary collaboration is rising. As Comp Bio and Pharma Tech become recognized verticals, the old walls between "diagnostic" and "therapeutic" business models are breaking down—and the smartest genomic companies are navigating both sides.


🎯 Who Should Read This (and Why)

  • Genomics platform CEOs and founders: To understand where the money is moving and what exit multiples are realistic.

  • Investors in computational biology: For insight into a sector that is rapidly gaining legitimacy as its own venture class.

  • Pharma BD & alliance managers: To see where the strategic capital is flowing—especially into cardiovascular and protein engineering.

  • Venture partners and analysts: To benchmark deal sizes, syndication patterns, and how "step-up" valuations compare across cycles.


Let me know if you'd like a shorter version for LinkedIn, or a graphical summary for SlideShare/blog.

AI Summary of Hanson-Wade White Paper on CDx and Biopharma

Find primary blog for this entry, here.

SIDEBAR

Here's a detailed and targeted summary of the Hanson Wade/Liang et al. white paper, "Why Diagnostic Regulation Matters in Pharmaceutical Development — and Current Best Practices", geared toward your blog audience of senior genomics and biopharma professionals:


πŸ” Summary: Why This White Paper Matters — and to Whom

This white paper, developed by a consortium of diagnostic regulatory leaders following the June 2024 World CDx Regulatory Affairs & Policy Summit, breaks new ground by offering the clearest articulation yet of how diagnostic regulation—especially Companion Diagnostics (CDx)—should be integrated into global drug development strategy. It is essential reading for:

  • Genomics professionals developing LDTs, RUOs, or investigational IVDs who now face the 2024 FDA rule to phase out enforcement discretion for LDTs.

  • NOTE - Based on Summer 2024 conference, this point not updated to July 2025.

  • Biopharma leaders who increasingly partner with diagnostics firms and must navigate cross-agency co-development, regulatory timing mismatches, and country-specific hurdles.

  • Diagnostic Regulatory Affairs teams or those building that function, as the paper provides the most complete blueprint yet for its role and value.


🧬 What’s New and Groundbreaking?

  1. Elevation of Diagnostic Regulatory Affairs (DRA) as a distinct, strategic function within pharma—akin to the rise of Clinical Operations 25 years ago. The authors argue persuasively that without dedicated DRA expertise, pharmaceutical programs risk delays, regulatory nonalignment, or failed global submissions.

  2. First truly global regulatory map for CDx, comparing FDA, EU IVDR, Japan PMDA, and China NMPA in terms of timelines, co-approval rules, and investigational pathways. A key insight: IVDR’s “one-size-fits-all” PSA requirement is slowing EU trials, while China's “Original CDx” concept is in its infancy and favors domestic partners.

  3. Integration of digital diagnostics and AI/ML tools into the CDx paradigm, including regulatory ambiguity over whether these qualify as SaMD (Software as a Medical Device) or clinical decision support. The authors point readers to tools like the FDA’s Digital Health Policy Navigator.

  4. Actionable best practices: A rich section on embedding diagnostic thinking into trial design and regulatory timelines, using retrospective bridging studies, pre-submission strategies, and parallel drug/CDx development timelines.

  5. Case studies and technical discussion of emerging issues, such as:

    • Use of CDx in non-oncology areas (e.g., cardiology, neurology), where biomarker-disease links are fuzzier and regulatory pathways less defined.

    • Tensions between central lab testing (favored for CDx approval) and local testing (favored for real-world utility and trial access).

    • Risk-based regulatory frameworks (e.g., FDA’s NSR/SR device classification) vs. Europe's flat, burdensome PSA requirements.


🧠 Why Genomics Professionals Should Read It

Although this white paper is pharma-centered, it's critical reading for genomics and diagnostics professionals for three reasons:

  • Your work now intersects with global regulatory jurisdictions—this paper demystifies the CDx landscape across FDA, IVDR, PMDA, and NMPA. It helps you speak the same language as your biopharma partners and anticipate their requirements.

  • You’ll be seen as a more valuable collaborator if you understand how diagnostic design impacts trial design, patient selection, and labeling. This paper shows how bridging studies, label coordination, and analytical vs. clinical validity are negotiated.

  • It provides a playbook for those transitioning from LDT/RUO frameworks into FDA-regulated CDx pathways, especially as FDA phases in full oversight.


⚙️ Most Useful to...

  • Precision medicine leads at pharma companies designing co-development programs or integrating new biomarkers.

  • Clinical trial designers and translational scientists managing complex trial inclusion/exclusion rules based on evolving biomarkers.

  • Reimbursement and market access teams, who must understand how CDx co-approval affects global launch timelines and regional pricing.

  • CDx developers or platform companies trying to support one test across multiple indications or drugs (e.g., leveraging FDA’s group labeling guidance).

  • Biotech–Genomics BD professionals, especially when negotiating companion diagnostics partnerships with pharma sponsors.


🧭 Bottom Line Takeaway

The diagnostic regulatory environment has become as complex and globalized as therapeutic regulation itself. Precision medicine cannot succeed without early and integrated regulatory planning for diagnostics—ideally, led by specialized Diagnostic Regulatory Affairs professionals. This white paper is the most comprehensive guide yet to what that means in practice, including timelines, country nuances, digital evolution, and organizational strategy.