Here’s a counterfactual timeline imagining what might have happened if Vice President Joe Biden ran and won the Democratic primary in 2016, instead of Hillary Clinton. This timeline updates events from mid-2016 to mid-2025, blending political realism with speculative turns.
🗳️ Mid-2016: Biden Enters, Wins the Primary
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After personal reflection and a delayed start due to his son Beau’s death in 2015, Joe Biden declares his candidacy in March 2016.
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His message is one of continuity with Obama-era centrism, Midwestern empathy, and blue-collar outreach.
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Hillary Clinton, caught off guard and with persistent baggage from the email controversy, gradually loses steam.
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Bernie Sanders performs well, but Biden unifies moderates and African American voters, clinching the nomination by June.
🏛️ November 2016: Biden Defeats Trump
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In the general election, Biden’s affable and “regular guy” persona proves harder for Trump to demonize than Clinton’s.
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Rust Belt states that narrowly went for Trump (like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) tilt to Biden, giving him a narrow but decisive Electoral College victory.
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Tim Kaine remains Biden’s running mate, becoming vice president.
📆 2017–2020: Biden’s First Term
Domestic Policy:
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Biden inherits a polarized country and a Republican Congress.
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His tone is moderate and conciliatory, emphasizing infrastructure, healthcare tweaks (rather than full ACA repeal), and opioid funding.
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The Mueller investigation into Russian election interference still unfolds, but Biden's DOJ is seen as less politicized.
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Trump starts a media empire, claiming the election was stolen. His influence persists but with less power.
Foreign Policy:
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Biden rejoins the Paris Climate Accord quickly.
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Maintains a strong stance on NATO, Ukraine deterrence, and China, but with more multilateralism than Trump.
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North Korea continues to provoke, but Biden doesn’t engage in summit diplomacy with Kim Jong-un.
COVID-19 Pandemic (2020):
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Public health leadership is centralized early, with Dr. Fauci elevated as a public face.
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National mask mandates are urged (though not universally enforceable), and federal support for testing and vaccine prep ramps up faster than in real history.
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Vaccine rollouts begin in late 2020, similar to real-world timelines, but public trust is higher, with less polarization over basic science.
🗳️ 2020 Election: Biden vs. Nikki Haley
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Trump, blamed by many for Republican midterm losses in 2018 and sidelined from office, doesn’t run in 2020.
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Nikki Haley, former UN Ambassador, wins the Republican nomination, backed by moderates and donors.
[BQ - Error - Nikki wouldn't have been UN ambassador in a Trump-free presidency]
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Biden runs for re-election, touting his pandemic leadership, steady economy, and return to norms.
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He wins again, this time more comfortably in both popular and Electoral College votes.
🏛️ 2021–2025: Biden’s Second Term
Domestic Policy:
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With a slim Senate majority after 2020, Biden passes:
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A large infrastructure bill
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Expanded child tax credits
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Modest gun control (universal background checks)
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The Supreme Court remains conservative (5–4 or 6–3), as no major seats open during his first term.
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Roe v. Wade is not overturned (in contrast to real history), as Justice Kennedy did not retire under Trump in 2018, and RBG dies in 2020, replaced by a moderate Biden nominee confirmed in a bruising Senate battle.
Foreign Policy:
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Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine still occurs.
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Biden leads a strong NATO response, including sanctions and weapons support.
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Ukraine’s resistance is strong, and Biden is lauded for building multilateral cohesion.
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China tensions grow over Taiwan and technology, but conflict is avoided.
2024 Election:
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Biden, now 81, announces in early 2024 he will not seek a third term.
BQ Error - Can't run for third term anyway
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The Democratic nomination becomes a battle between:
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Vice President Tim Kaine
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California Governor Gavin Newsom
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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
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Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
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Kaine wins narrowly and selects Whitmer as his running mate.
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The GOP nominates Ron DeSantis, whose culture war messaging fires up the base.
November 2024:
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The Kaine–Whitmer ticket defeats DeSantis, with Biden’s legacy helping carry swing states.
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However, it’s closer than expected, showing signs of fatigue with Democratic control.
📆 Mid-2025: Current Outlook
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President Kaine is seen as competent but lacks Biden’s natural political charisma.
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Biden, retired and living in Delaware, remains a revered elder statesman, akin to Eisenhower.
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The U.S. is still deeply polarized, but Trumpism has been somewhat defanged, and Biden’s presence cooled the culture war flame — without extinguishing it.
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Abortion remains legal nationwide, with moderate state restrictions.
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Climate legislation is active, with massive subsidies for renewables and EVs.
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AI policy, housing affordability, and mental health have become the frontiers of debate in Kaine’s first year.
Would you like a version where Biden loses the 2016 election after winning the nomination — or perhaps a more detailed map of events during COVID?
