Economist provides election forecasts based on polls plus electoral college modeling.
Currently 75% Trump (point prediction, 310 to 228.) 7-4-2024. But the last update may be 7-1.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
The US forecast sight "538" rates the Trump odds narrowly at 54 to 46 as of 7-5-24.
